Nothing is certain in fantasy football, but the chances of these players reaching the end zone this week are pretty darn close. These are my best bets to score at the running back and wide receiver positions going into Week 5 of the NFL season.
TODD GURLEY, Falcons
Gurley has only 254 rushing yards on the season, but in his first season in Atlanta he is tied for second in the league in running back rushing scores with four, and he’ll look to improve on that number against a Carolina defense that stifles wide receivers and tight ends, but is the second-best matchup for RBs going into Week 5. No team has allowed more rushing TDs than the Panthers (seven), so Gurley’s chances to bolster his 47.71% TD dependency are good.
MARK INGRAM, Ravens
Ingram actually trailed Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in snaps last week, but he was the primary goal-line back and the only one of the three to find the end zone. This week, Ingram faces the Bengals, who are our fifth-best matchup for RBs going into Week 5. The Baltimore backfield is a bit muddled, but Ingram is still their most likely RB option to score on a week-to-week basis.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, Chiefs
Edwards-Helaire has only one TD on the season, but this week he goes up against the Raiders, our best matchup for RBs in the league. They’re tied with the Panthers for most rushing scores allowed (seven), and they’re first in fantasy points to RBs. Edwards-Helaire’s snap percentage has gone up every week to 73% in Week 4, so there's an increasing likelihood he gets the ball in the red zone.
JAMES ROBINSON, Jaguars
The only time Robinson, who has an impressive 4.75 YPC average, comes off the field for stretches is when the Jaguars are playing catch-up. They should be competitive against the 0-4 Texans this week though, a team that just fired its head coach/general manager. So Robinson should get a lot of snaps against our third-best matchup for RBs in the league. The Texans are second in rushing TDs allowed, and Robinson is tied for third in RB rushing scores (three). Robinson is only 28.75% TD dependent, but that’s because he gets so many touches.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT, Cowboys
The Cowboys don’t want to be in a shootout every week, it isn’t working out for them, so look for them to establish the run against a reeling Giants team — our ninth-best RB matchup. Elliott has four TDs on the season and he handles more than 85% of offensive snaps. Elliott is a strong bet to hit the end zone this week.
ADAM THIELEN, Vikings
Justin Jefferson is all the rage in Minnesota right now, but Thielen has a leg up in TDs, as he has four scores to Jefferson’s one. Only Mike Evans has more than Thielen. Thielen, with a 43.17% TD dependency, is likely to find the end zone again this week against Seattle, our best matchup for opposing WRs. No team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs.
CEEDEE LAMB, Cowboys
Amari Cooper and Lamb are neck-and-neck for fantasy points, and Lamb has more TDs (two) on the season. The Cowboys go up against the Giants, our seventh-best WR matchup this week, and though Cooper, Michael Gallup and even Cedric Wilson could score, I like Lamb to take advantage of the Giants defense.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, Steelers
With a whopping 50% TD dependency and a matchup with the Eagles, our 10th-best WR matchup, Smith-Schuster has a good chance to find the end zone this week. He’s tied for third in the league for WR receiving TDs (three), and even though Diontae Johnson returns from concussion protocol this week, Smith-Schuster has shown he’s still a primary red zone target.
TYLER LOCKETT, Seahawks
Lockett finds himself on this list often, but it’s only right, as he’s the 1A wide receiver on the best passing offense in the league. He also has the second-most receiving TDs for a WR going into Week 5. It only helps matters that his opponent this week is a Vikings team that has allowed the third-most receiving TDs (seven) in the league and is our second-best matchup for WRs overall.
TYREEK HILL, Chiefs
The Chiefs are second in the league for most TDs by WRs this season with seven, and more than half of them have gone to Hill (four). Hill has been consistent with his scores, as he’s found the end zone in every game this season, the only player other than Mike Evans to have done so. We can expect at least one more score from Hill this week against a Raiders defense that could struggle to contain Hill on the perimeter.
This column was provided to The Associated Press by RosterWatch, www.rosterwatch.com.